2.3.2 精細(xì)化DR管理

 

在供需平衡方面,ADR系統(tǒng)為電力企業(yè)及負(fù)荷聚合商帶來(lái)了新的挑戰(zhàn),作為負(fù)荷的上級(jí)管理者,需要優(yōu)化DR事件的類型及次序,并為每一種類型的事件組織相應(yīng)的DR資源。在DR聚合商的決策制定過(guò)程中需要實(shí)現(xiàn)DR資源的精細(xì)化管理,DR行為建模異常復(fù)雜,其中短期用戶行為的預(yù)測(cè)[45]、DR資源動(dòng)態(tài)聚合特性[46]、特定場(chǎng)景的優(yōu)化[47],均需要考慮。與傳統(tǒng)的負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)不同的是,在ADR項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行期間,需要準(zhǔn)確地判斷某個(gè)特定的用戶是否會(huì)參與一個(gè)即將發(fā)生的DR項(xiàng)目,并響應(yīng)相應(yīng)的DR指令。為了能夠準(zhǔn)確地刻畫DR用戶的行為,必須考慮外界的激勵(lì)或者價(jià)格對(duì)不同類型用戶的影響,比如：對(duì)于工業(yè)用戶必須通過(guò)更改生產(chǎn)調(diào)度計(jì)劃才能調(diào)整負(fù)荷曲線[48]。

 

 

圖7 構(gòu)建精細(xì)化DR模型的數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)

 

圖7給出了代表性的DR事件執(zhí)行前后的負(fù)荷遷移曲線。DR事件數(shù)據(jù)不需要實(shí)時(shí)響應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù),采用分鐘量級(jí)的數(shù)據(jù)即可。通過(guò)記憶型的方法加權(quán)回歸以及集群學(xué)習(xí)的方法也可以實(shí)現(xiàn)類似于非參數(shù)統(tǒng)計(jì)方法的效果。當(dāng)需要進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)時(shí),可以存儲(chǔ)歷史數(shù)據(jù),并根據(jù)當(dāng)前的查詢條件找到歷史曲線中的類似樣本,通過(guò)加權(quán)回帶方法進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。記憶型

 

的預(yù)測(cè)方法具有一定的自然適應(yīng)性,預(yù)測(cè)總是根據(jù)最近的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行并且能夠隨時(shí)間推進(jìn)不斷優(yōu)化。

 

目前雖然已有研究學(xué)者提出了基于人工智能的DR資源建模理論,但由于DR業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展剛剛起步,現(xiàn)有試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目平均每年僅執(zhí)行1~2次,因此并沒有太多的歷史數(shù)據(jù)用于樣本訓(xùn)練,僅可以作為輔助的數(shù)據(jù)支撐。此外,對(duì)于DR行為的建模難度較大,從用戶的角度而言用電數(shù)據(jù)僅僅反映了用戶的用電行為,如：日常較低的用電水平表明了用戶外出行為,對(duì)于外界因素影響、心理行為、政策環(huán)境等均需要考慮。

 

2.3.3 補(bǔ)貼結(jié)算

 

合理的DR補(bǔ)貼結(jié)算方式可以有效提升用戶參與需求響應(yīng)的潛力,而用戶基線負(fù)荷作為激勵(lì)型需求響應(yīng)項(xiàng)目的重要評(píng)估依據(jù),其對(duì)制定合理的DR補(bǔ)貼結(jié)算標(biāo)準(zhǔn)具有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。目前國(guó)內(nèi)外在基線負(fù)荷分析方面已有大量的研究成果。美國(guó)AEIC負(fù)荷研究委員會(huì)提出了基于DR動(dòng)態(tài)量測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的負(fù)荷基線分析方法,期待通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)交互的方式對(duì)削減的電力和電量進(jìn)行評(píng)估。用戶的負(fù)荷基線與實(shí)際的電力負(fù)荷曲線的差值也即是用戶的負(fù)荷削減貢獻(xiàn),但是在實(shí)際的系統(tǒng)測(cè)量中,負(fù)荷的基線估計(jì)往往不夠準(zhǔn)確。如果用戶負(fù)荷基線被過(guò)高的估計(jì),電力公司或者聚合商需要為此支付高昂的補(bǔ)貼費(fèi)用。反之,如果用戶基線被過(guò)低的估計(jì),參與需求響應(yīng)的用戶將無(wú)法得到補(bǔ)貼,而且還面臨著參與DR項(xiàng)目的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),長(zhǎng)此以往將嚴(yán)重打擊用戶參與電網(wǎng)互動(dòng)的積極性,不利于DR市場(chǎng)的培育和健康發(fā)展。因此,通過(guò)動(dòng)態(tài)交互的數(shù)據(jù)以及精準(zhǔn)的狀態(tài)評(píng)估算法,才能夠幫助系統(tǒng)運(yùn)營(yíng)者能夠更好的掌握用戶的準(zhǔn)確基線,文獻(xiàn)[49]提出的負(fù)荷態(tài)勢(shì)感知理論為精細(xì)化基線計(jì)算提供了一種有效的解決思路,未來(lái)在互操作規(guī)范完善后可實(shí)現(xiàn)單體DR資源的精細(xì)化補(bǔ)貼結(jié)算。

 

對(duì)于大型工商業(yè)用戶,應(yīng)當(dāng)充分考慮用戶在參與DR項(xiàng)目時(shí)的響應(yīng)負(fù)荷與錯(cuò)避峰負(fù)荷重疊的情況,確保在電力供應(yīng)缺口時(shí),能夠更好地應(yīng)對(duì)短時(shí)區(qū)域性的電力供應(yīng)缺口,同時(shí)也要避免對(duì)某一用戶的長(zhǎng)時(shí)間持續(xù)限電。目前,對(duì)于小型居民用戶而言,計(jì)量、結(jié)算難度較大,也有相關(guān)研究在考慮通過(guò)區(qū)塊鏈等新型信息通信技術(shù)(information communications technology,ICT)解決該問(wèn)題[50]。未來(lái)還需要充分結(jié)合我國(guó)電力市場(chǎng)環(huán)境以及相關(guān)政策的制定情況,進(jìn)一步研究基線負(fù)荷計(jì)算策略,將根據(jù)用戶的性質(zhì)制定多種基線負(fù)荷計(jì)算方法,如參考同比數(shù)據(jù)等,既要保障做出貢獻(xiàn)的DR用戶能夠拿到足額補(bǔ)貼,又要防止相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)不運(yùn)營(yíng),吃補(bǔ)貼。需求響應(yīng)單靠電力公司難以廣泛推行,不僅需要提高用戶對(duì)需求響應(yīng)的認(rèn)知程度,讓用戶廣泛參與,還需要依靠政府的支持。通過(guò)出臺(tái)相應(yīng)政策,完善負(fù)荷聚合商培育機(jī)制和融資機(jī)制,充分發(fā)揮第三方服務(wù)企業(yè)的作用,加入DR市場(chǎng)管理的環(huán)節(jié)。

 

2.3.4 商業(yè)模式

 

目前試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目中的最大問(wèn)題就是沒有建立起成熟的商業(yè)模式,我國(guó)全面放開售電側(cè)市場(chǎng)后,社會(huì)資本參與售電業(yè)務(wù)的積極性較高,在后續(xù)試點(diǎn)中尤其需要進(jìn)一步探索負(fù)荷聚合商的盈利途徑[51-52]。由于缺少合理的商業(yè)模式,目前我國(guó)的DR試點(diǎn)城市大多依賴于半行政化的有序用電系統(tǒng)配合才能夠順利開展DR的業(yè)務(wù),居民用戶的參與積極性則很難調(diào)動(dòng)起來(lái)。由于居民用戶的單個(gè)負(fù)荷體量非常小,往往被電網(wǎng)企業(yè)所忽略,但在其聚合后會(huì)形成巨大的可調(diào)節(jié)潛力[53]。普通居民用戶即使完全參與DR業(yè)務(wù),每個(gè)月的收益也不會(huì)太高,因此僅僅靠直接電費(fèi)節(jié)省是不能挖掘用戶的深度參與潛力的,需要借鑒互聯(lián)網(wǎng)共享經(jīng)濟(jì)理論,設(shè)計(jì)新型商業(yè)模式,才能提升居民用戶的自主參與度。

 

在未來(lái)完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的電力市場(chǎng)環(huán)境中,負(fù)荷聚合商還需要具有可盈利的商業(yè)模式才能夠生存,負(fù)荷聚合商對(duì)負(fù)荷的控制需要專用ICT設(shè)備或者相應(yīng)的技術(shù)改造升級(jí)才能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn),在DR低收益的條件下,該成本很難回收。不同于工商業(yè)用戶,居民用戶的主觀行為隨機(jī)性較大,而且在現(xiàn)有國(guó)內(nèi)外的DR項(xiàng)目設(shè)計(jì)上均允許用戶自由退出[54]。一旦用戶收回負(fù)載的控制權(quán),負(fù)荷聚合商在參與DR項(xiàng)目時(shí)將非常被動(dòng),必須通過(guò)更為高級(jí)的算法,從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的角度依概率對(duì)用戶進(jìn)行調(diào)度,否則甚至可能會(huì)由于對(duì)電網(wǎng)企業(yè)或者上一級(jí)負(fù)荷聚合商所承諾的服務(wù)沒有完成而虧損。因此,負(fù)荷聚合商未來(lái)的增值業(yè)務(wù)模式也是決定該實(shí)體能否在市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下發(fā)揮作用的重要環(huán)節(jié),DR業(yè)務(wù)在居民用戶的推廣,需要優(yōu)先考慮在智能用電領(lǐng)域有相應(yīng)規(guī)劃的領(lǐng)頭企業(yè)配合才能夠大規(guī)模拓展應(yīng)用。江蘇電力公司已經(jīng)與海爾、美的等家電企業(yè)簽署《互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+智能用電領(lǐng)域戰(zhàn)略合作協(xié)議書》,并致力于智能用電及負(fù)荷級(jí)需求響應(yīng)業(yè)務(wù)的推進(jìn)。未來(lái)除了常規(guī)的數(shù)據(jù)采集、控制等基礎(chǔ)功能外,還應(yīng)當(dāng)進(jìn)一步調(diào)度其積極性,為需求側(cè)資源提供額外的能源管理、設(shè)備維護(hù)、節(jié)能等增值服務(wù),利用平臺(tái)所積累的海量數(shù)據(jù),深度推進(jìn)智能用電業(yè)務(wù)的開展。

 

3 結(jié)語(yǔ)

 

我國(guó)雖然在多地實(shí)施了需求響應(yīng)試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目,積累了大量的實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn),但需求響應(yīng)在大規(guī)模推廣應(yīng)用方面仍存在許多問(wèn)題。隨著能源領(lǐng)域的變革進(jìn)程推進(jìn),未來(lái)DR業(yè)務(wù)將會(huì)向?qū)嵤┲黧w多元化、運(yùn)行機(jī)制市場(chǎng)化、系統(tǒng)決策智能化、執(zhí)行方式自動(dòng)化、應(yīng)用場(chǎng)景多樣化、能源種類綜合化方向發(fā)展,業(yè)務(wù)模式將更為復(fù)雜和多樣。本文基于當(dāng)前國(guó)內(nèi)外需求響應(yīng)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,分別從政策機(jī)制保障、信息化支撐、平臺(tái)部署及組織實(shí)施層面,同時(shí)針對(duì)以上各方面存在的問(wèn)題提出了一些未來(lái)發(fā)展建議,旨在為我國(guó)需求響應(yīng)在大規(guī)模實(shí)施過(guò)程中提供一些參考。此外隨著市場(chǎng)機(jī)制逐步健全、新型信息化技術(shù)不斷發(fā)展,未來(lái)還需要充分挖掘DR用戶的參與積極性,不斷豐富和完善需求響應(yīng)業(yè)務(wù)內(nèi)涵,才能真正意義地實(shí)現(xiàn)DR業(yè)務(wù)大規(guī)模發(fā)展。

 

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原標(biāo)題:我國(guó)實(shí)施大規(guī)模需求響應(yīng)的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題剖析與展望