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  • 司曉:“數(shù)字中國”如何影響實(shí)體中國的發(fā)展

    2015-12-04 20:39:01 騰訊研究院  點(diǎn)擊量: 評論 (0)
    中國的增長故事有雙重含義,一重是實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長,另一重是虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)、數(shù)字中國以更快的速度增長。前一重大家說的很多,后一重含義說的就很少。而中國增長故事還有一部分從來沒有被提及,就是數(shù)字中國如何影響
    中國的增長故事有雙重含義,一重是實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長,另一重是虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)、數(shù)字中國以更快的速度增長。前一重大家說的很多,后一重含義說的就很少。而中國增長故事還有一部分從來沒有被提及,就是“數(shù)字中國”如何影響實(shí)體中國的發(fā)展。
     
      本文根據(jù)信息社會50人論壇成員,騰訊研究院秘書長、公共戰(zhàn)略研究部總經(jīng)理司曉博士在“2015北大-牛津-斯坦福互聯(lián)網(wǎng)法律與政策研討會”上的演講翻譯整理,英文原文附后。
     
    尊敬的女士們、先生們:
      很榮幸收到邀請參加今天的研討會,作關(guān)于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+的演講。
      中國的增長故事,首先是一個(gè)很好的故事,30年里年均GDP實(shí)際增速超過10%,是全球增長最快的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體,7億人脫貧。其次,中國的增長故事有雙重含義,一重是實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長,另一重是虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)、數(shù)字中國以更快的速度增長。前一重大家說的很多,后一重含義說的就很少。最后,中國增長故事還有一部分從來沒有被提及。就是數(shù)字中國如何影響實(shí)體中國的增長。這,是今天演講的重點(diǎn)。
    司曉:“數(shù)字中國”如何影響實(shí)體中國的發(fā)展
      隨著越來越多的中國人進(jìn)入數(shù)字世界,數(shù)字中國給現(xiàn)實(shí)生活帶來的影響與日俱增。特別是在移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的時(shí)代。
      在過去20年里,由于中國涌現(xiàn)出了包括華為、中興和小米等在內(nèi)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司,電信基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的成本降低了90%。一個(gè)優(yōu)質(zhì)的國產(chǎn)智能手機(jī)只需100美金。由此,移動網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶的數(shù)量在中國迅速增長。截止2014年底,中國有6億網(wǎng)民,成為全球網(wǎng)民數(shù)量最多的第三大國家。
      目前,中國網(wǎng)民的日常生活都能通過手機(jī)解決,包括購物、訂酒店、叫出租車以及支付各種賬單。
      中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司輸出的不僅是各類App,更是一種智能的生活方式。
    司曉:“數(shù)字中國”如何影響實(shí)體中國的發(fā)展
      以微信為例,微信是騰訊公司于2011年發(fā)布的社交軟件,用戶數(shù)達(dá)到1個(gè)億僅用了433天的時(shí)間,刷新了當(dāng)時(shí)的世界紀(jì)錄。然而,用戶從1億增長到2億,僅僅用了2個(gè)月。如今,微信的月活躍用戶數(shù)為6.5億。有超過2億張銀行卡綁定了微信支付。
      微信支付開始滲入中國的傳統(tǒng)文化。例如,人們開始通過微信發(fā)紅包。在中國文化中,Hong代表紅色,bao表示信封。在特殊的節(jié)慶日,中國人喜歡把一定數(shù)量的現(xiàn)金放入紅色的信封中,分發(fā)給親朋好友以傳遞快樂和幸福。總體而言,老一輩的人應(yīng)該給年輕一輩人紅包。在中國的南方,例如廣州,結(jié)婚的人應(yīng)該給沒有結(jié)婚的人紅包;老板給員工發(fā)紅包。在2015年春節(jié)期間,僅一天,就有超過十億的紅包通過微信支付發(fā)出。剛開始時(shí),人們認(rèn)為這個(gè)記錄會保持一年直到下一個(gè)新年。但事實(shí)上該記錄只維持了6個(gè)月。在中秋節(jié)當(dāng)天,有22億的紅包通過微信發(fā)出。現(xiàn)在,紅包已然成為微信的一個(gè)標(biāo)簽。這個(gè)例子展示了手機(jī)支付在中國的流行程度,同時(shí)也是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+文化的絕佳例子。
      一方面,用戶傾向于用微信支付購物并支付。另一方面,商場利用微信作為他們的社交平臺來吸引更多的顧客并提升銷售額。
      iBeacon是騰訊新推出的一款小巧的設(shè)備,售價(jià)僅為10英鎊左右,電量足夠使用一整年。如果你是一位線下的零售商,擁有了iBeacon,周圍的顧客都可以通過使用微信的“搖一搖”功能輕松的找到你,并且獲得關(guān)于商品打折信息和你推送的任何信息,如果他們覺得你足夠有吸引力的話,就可以關(guān)注你的微信公眾賬號。不同于以往的是,線下商家獲得的不僅是顧客的一次購物,更是線上的客戶,自己也變身為電子商家。這是中國每天都在發(fā)生的事情,我們稱之為O2O,也就是online-to-offline,線上對線下。如果我現(xiàn)在有iBeacon,你就可以搖一搖手機(jī)獲取正在演示的ppt,非常有趣。
      一些政府部門,例如派出所;公共服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu),例如醫(yī)院,都使用我們的微信向“顧客”提供服務(wù),甚至慈善機(jī)構(gòu)也使用我們的平臺來籌資。用戶可以捐贈的不僅僅是錢,還有他們的步數(shù),具體機(jī)制是,如果你一天走一萬步以上,公益機(jī)構(gòu)就會得到一小筆捐贈,走得越多就可以捐得越多,這項(xiàng)創(chuàng)舉也意在鼓勵人們多多鍛煉。
      數(shù)字中國是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+的基礎(chǔ)。
      騰訊的CEO馬化騰首先提出“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+”的概念,他用這個(gè)詞描述互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)系。同時(shí)也鼓勵傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)用移動網(wǎng)絡(luò)來升級它們的產(chǎn)業(yè)。很幸運(yùn)的是,政府也認(rèn)可這個(gè)概念并提升為國家戰(zhàn)略。國務(wù)院總理李克強(qiáng)指出,“制定‘互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+’行動計(jì)劃,推動移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、云計(jì)算、大數(shù)據(jù)、物聯(lián)網(wǎng)等與現(xiàn)代制造業(yè)結(jié)合。”
      這釋放出很明顯的信息:移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)應(yīng)該會成為未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的引擎和基礎(chǔ),互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司也應(yīng)該幫助傳統(tǒng)公司更新他們的商業(yè)模式。
      這在對中國的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司一個(gè)很高的期望,對吧?
      但實(shí)際上我們認(rèn)為,我們不僅能在商業(yè)和銀行業(yè)這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮作用,利用移動互聯(lián),我們還能夠使中國效率低下的公共服務(wù)系統(tǒng)得到改進(jìn)。
      我們也相信,移動互聯(lián)也是對抗在中國雖有改善但仍較普遍的社會不公與貧困的有力武器。
      我們相信,以上是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+行動兩個(gè)真正的使命。
      對于第一個(gè)使命,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)已經(jīng)改變了中國的公共服務(wù)圖景。在人口龐大、公共服務(wù)資源相對有限的情況下,滿足國民對公共服務(wù)要求的唯一方式就是,發(fā)揮公共服務(wù)系統(tǒng)的全部能力。
      我舉個(gè)例子相信大家就能明白。武漢市交警在我們的平臺上開設(shè)了一個(gè)賬號,武漢居民在這個(gè)平臺上繳納交通罰款只需要60秒。而在以前,這樣的繳費(fèi)需要幾個(gè)小時(shí)甚至幾天,因?yàn)槟阈枰阢y行和交警大隊(duì)之間來回跑。這樣一個(gè)簡單的改進(jìn),一年可以節(jié)約140萬小時(shí),300個(gè)警察可以從他們繁雜的日常工作中解放出來。
      我昨天享受了一次愉快的牛津之旅,我們的導(dǎo)游是一位學(xué)歷史的牛津?qū)W生,他的導(dǎo)游工作做得很棒,因?yàn)樗麑ε=蛳喈?dāng)?shù)牧私猓覀円矎乃闹v解中收獲頗多。
      這段精彩的體驗(yàn)讓我想起上周我們利用移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)游覽了我的家鄉(xiāng)。如果你對中國歷史感興趣的話應(yīng)該聽說過開封,它是包括宋朝在內(nèi)的八朝古都。當(dāng)?shù)卣谄湮⑿殴娞柹祥_設(shè)了語音專欄講述“開封故事”。所有游客都可以通過掃描建筑物、街道或其他名勝附近的二維碼進(jìn)入公眾帳號收聽語音專欄,每個(gè)人也可以講述自己與這棟建筑的故事。這些都是真實(shí)的故事,我們很高興地看到有很多在外地求學(xué)的學(xué)生甚至海外移民都以極大熱情參與到這項(xiàng)活動中。這就是我們所謂的“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+旅游業(yè)”或“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+文化”。如果牛津大學(xué)也能有這項(xiàng)公共服務(wù)的話就再好不過了,這樣所有的游客都能有機(jī)會聽到全世界的牛津畢業(yè)生所分享的牛津故事。
      根據(jù)騰訊研究院今年早些時(shí)候的一項(xiàng)研究數(shù)據(jù),2014年微信上已經(jīng)有超過4萬個(gè)公共服務(wù)賬號。而在今年九月,這個(gè)數(shù)字在短短9個(gè)月里已經(jīng)翻倍,達(dá)到8萬個(gè),提供大約800項(xiàng)公共服務(wù),覆蓋68個(gè)城市,大約兩億人口。
      每個(gè)賬號有平均3.6萬個(gè)活躍的訂閱者。我們定義每三個(gè)月至少與賬號管理者互動一次的訂閱者為“活躍”的訂閱者。通過簡單的計(jì)算,每一季度有至少30億次的互動。
    司曉:“數(shù)字中國”如何影響實(shí)體中國的發(fā)展
      互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+公共服務(wù)正在高速發(fā)展。
      對于第二個(gè)使命,我們的工作是細(xì)致的,但也是根本性的。
      我去了銅關(guān)很多次。當(dāng)?shù)厝顺韬馨簦瑤装倌陙硭麄兌枷襁@樣為純粹的快樂唱歌。但是這是第一次他們可以從唱歌獲得樂趣以外的東西。
      互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+農(nóng)村才開始,事實(shí)上,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+才剛開始。
      這是我們制作的關(guān)于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+行動計(jì)劃的地圖。
    司曉:“數(shù)字中國”如何影響實(shí)體中國的發(fā)展
      以下列舉的是幾個(gè)具有代表性的數(shù)據(jù)。
      今年第三方支付預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到11.8萬億元, 2014年是8.1萬億。 移動支付占到了其80%。
      騰訊的開放平臺吸引了超過5百萬的開發(fā)者,他們中70%都是懷揣夢想的年輕人,他們希望能發(fā)展成像阿里巴巴、百度和騰訊一樣的大型互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司。
      互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司現(xiàn)在成為中國原創(chuàng)歌手、作家和自媒體的主要收入來源。
      我們正在建立健康和可持續(xù)的生態(tài)環(huán)境。在所有人的共同努力下,我們可以讓未來的世界變的更好,其中的關(guān)鍵就是“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+”。
      謝謝大家。
     
    根據(jù)現(xiàn)場英文演講整理
    “Internet +”: Just the Beginning
      Ladies and gentlemen, it is my great honor, to be invited here to deliver a speech about Internet+.
      The growth story of china is too good of a story: In the past three decades, China was the world's fastest-growing major economy, with growth rates averaging 10%. During the same time, close to 700 mil. Chinese were lifted from extreme poverty.
    The growth story of China is twofold. The first is easy to observe, the dizzying growth of real GDP. The second, the growth of digital China, has also drew some attention, but far from the fair share it deserves.
      Moreover, there is an untold story. As more and more Chinese people are involved into the digital world, the impact of digital China on the real one increases rapidly.
      This is particularly true in the mobile internet era.
      Thanks for the Chinese IT firms such as Huawei, ZTE, and Xiaomi, the price of mobile devices dropped over 90% in the last twenty years. A nicely made in China smartphone could be as cheap as $100.
      As a result, the population of mobile internet subscribers explored in China. By the end of 2014, there were 600mil. mobile netizens in China. This is the third largest population around the globe.
      Now, the Chinese netizens’ daily routine is to shop, book hotel, grab taxi, pay all kinds of bills through their mobile phones.
      Guess what. Chinese internet companies produce more than just some simple apps. We produce a hub of Chinese smart life.
      Take Wechat as an example . Tencent launched Wechat as a social network app in 2011. In 433 days, its registered user reached 100 mil. A world record at that time. Guess what, it only took 2 month to reach it’s second 100mil.. By now, Wechat enjoyed a monthly active user base of 650 mil. More than 200 mil. bank cards were bound with Wechat-pay.
      And wechat-pay started to penetrate into Chinese traditions. For example, people start to send hongbao through wechat-pay. In Chinese, Hong means red and bao means envelop. On special celebrative days, Chinese people would wrap up some small amount of cash into a red envelop. And then hand those envelops to intimate ones to share the happiness. Generally, the old generation should give the young ones, In south party of China, like guangodng, those who married should give hongbao to those who not, boss should give employees. During the past Chinese Spring Festive, just that single day, over one billion hongbao were sent through wechat-pay. At first, everyone thought this record would last at least a year till the next Chinese New Year. But it turn out that the record lasted only six months, that latest one is 2.2 billion hongbao at Mid-Autumn day. Nowdays hongbao has become sort of stickers at wechat. It is a wonderful example to show how popular mobile payment is in China, and also a good example of Internet + culture.
      One the one hand, consumers tend to use Wechat to pay their bills and buy stuffs. On the other hand, shopping malls use Wechat as a social platform to get their customers and promote sales.
      If you are an offline retailer, with a single little device Ibecone, it’ only around 10 pounds, with the battery capacity as long as a whole year, customs nearby will find you easily just through shaking their phone on wechat, the information like what’s on sale or anything you push is easy to disseminate. then they can follow you wechat account if you are attractive enough. In this way, it’s not just a single purchase as it used to be, the offline retailer get online customers, and become a e-commerce one. This is what’s happing every day in China, offline to online , what we called O2O. If I have Ibecone with me today, you can shaking your phone to get the slide I’m using now, interesting, right?
      Some government agencies, like the police stations; public service providers, like hospitals, they all use Wechat to serve their customers. Even Charity foundations raise money through our platform. It is not just donating money, wechat users can even donate their steps to a charity. The mechanism is like this: a sponsor will donate a small amount of money if you walk over 10 thousand steps in a day. The more you walk the more they donate. This is also an innovative way of encouraging people to do more exercises.
      The digital China, serves as the foundation of “Internet +”
      “Internet +” was firstly raised by our CEO Pony, he use this word to describe the relationship between internet and traditional industry, and encourage them to use mobile internet to upgrade their business. Fortunately, the government took this word as a national strategy, according to our Prime Minister Li, “Internet +” is an action plan that encourage the converge of mobile internet, cloud computing, big data, IOT with the modern manufacturing industries.”
      The message is clear. Mobile internet should be served as the engine and the infrastructure of future economic growth. Internet companies should help brick and mortar companies to upgrade their business models.
      A high hope for the Chinese internet companies, isn’t it?
      But we actually think that, We are more than just about economies, like commerce and banking. With the help of mobile internet, we can turn around the often inefficient public services in China.
      We also believe that mobile internet could be a powerful weapon to combat inequality and poverty, which is much better now but still pervasive in China.
      These are the two true missions behind the action plan of “internet +”, we believe.
      Internet + has changed the landscape of public services in China. With a huge population, and the relatively limited public service resources we have, the only way to fulfill the demands is making the public service system runs at its full potential.
      Let me give you an example. You can easily get what I mean, Wuhan traffic police has opened an account on our social platform. Residents of Wuhan can pay their fines as fast as only 60 seconds now. But back in the old days, however, such a fine payment may take hours or even days, because you should go back and forth to the traffic police station and bank. This simple improvement could save as many as 1.4 mil. hours a year. Three hundred policemen are freed from their tedious daily routine.
      I've enjoyed a tour of Oxford campus yesterday. Our guide is an Oxford student majored in history, he did really a good job. It seems he knows this place inside out very well and we all learned a lot.
      My fantastic experience reminds me how we do these tourism last week in my hometown with the help of mobile internet. Kaifeng, you may head it before if you are interested in China history, It was the capital city of 8 Dynasties including the famous Song dynasty, the local government opened a voice column on their Wechat public account for the local citizen to tell Kaifeng tale. Any visitors can open this voice column by scanning a QR code attached to a building, street or any place of interest. Then anyone who lived there can tell his or her stories with the building. These are all true stories, we are happy to find that students who study in other cities or even migration overseas all participate with great enthusiasm. That's what we called Internet + tourism or Internet + culture. I think it would be great that Oxford will have this public service in the near future so that all the visitors here may enjoy the stories shared by the Oxford graduates all around the world.
      According to a research conducted by us, Tencent Research Institute earlier this year, there were over 40 thousand public services accounts on WeChat in 2014. By the end of this September, this number had been doubled to 80 thousand, within only nine months. Around 800 public services are available in 68 cities, covered 200 million population.
      Each account enjoys an average of 36 thousand active followers. We define “active” as the follower interacted with the account manager at least once every three months. So, you could do a simple math. That there were at least 3 billion interaction went every quarter.
      Internet + public services is on its fast track of development.
      About the second mission. What we could do are subtle but fundamental.
      I’ve been to Tong Guan many times. Their singing is amazing. And they have been singing like this for hundreds of years, for fun, and fun only. But first time by these hundreds of years, they could make something out of it, to make singing more than just fun.
      Its just the beginning of internet + villages,Actually, it is just the beginning of internet +
      This is a roadmap we made of internet+ action plan.
      Just some stylized facts.
      Online payments are expected to hit 11.8 trillion Yuan this year, up from 8.1 trillon in 2014. Mobile payments account for about 60 % of this total.
      Tencent open platform has attracted over 5 mil. developers, nearly 70% of them are young individuals with a dream to grow into big internet companies like Alibaba Baidu or Tencent.
      Internet companies now are the main source of incomes for Chinese song writers, authors, and self-medias.
      We are building up a healthy and sustainable ecosystem. With all partners, big or small, we could help china to migrate into a better place to live in.
      And the key, could be what we called “internet +”
      That’ all, Thank you!
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